@article{oai:kyotogakuen.repo.nii.ac.jp:00001287,
 author = {尾崎, タイヨ and Ozaki, Taiyo},
 issue = {2},
 month = {2013-03},
 note = {In this paper, we discuss the development of a small macroeconometric model of Japan. The model has the typical features of a new Keynesian macroeconomic model, including the effects of both short-term demand shocks and long-term equilibrium conditions or supply-side constraints. The model incorporates an error correction formula to ensure the stability of the long-term conditions and the co-integrated relations. The model features partly forward-looking variables, which imply the model-consistent expectation that the minimum forecasting error is assured. The model also adopts a translog function to estimate the share functions for the bilateral trade relations instead of using the conventional function that more effectively reflects changes in the relative price and the demand between trading partners.
Several simulation analyses indicate that the multiplier of the fiscal expansion is 1.4~1.6 if the whole expenditure is regarded as "real water". We also estimated the impact of a VAT hike of Japan. It may reduce the Japanese economy by 3%},
 pages = {29--56},
 title = {A New Keynesian Macroeconometric Model and the Estimation of the Effect of the VAT hike of Japan},
 volume = {22},
 year = {},
 yomi = {オザキ, タイヨ}
}